Efekti ekonomskih katastrofa

Effects of economic disasters

Program / Programme: Istraživački projekt
/ Research Project
Voditelj projekta / Principal investigator: Bruno Ćorić
Akronim projekta / Project acronym: ECONDIS2016
Trajanje u mjesecima / Duration in months: 36
Odobreni iznos sredstava / Budget: 323.481,00 HRK
Znanstveno područje / Scientific area: Društvene znanosti
/ Social sciences
Znanstveno polje / Scientific field: Ekonomija/Economics



The collapse of the subprime mortgages market in the summer of 2007 in US triggered one of the most severe financial and economic crises in recent history and the first global economic downturn after the Second World War. These events give impetus to the new literature on the effects of large economic crises, the so called economic disasters. Following groundbreaking Barro’s (2006) study most of these researches focus on the possible effects of economic disasters on asset pricing and financial markets. Our research proposal, on the other hand, focuses on the effects of economic disasters on the real sector of economy. This is the area that has remained largely uninvestigated by the recent literature on economic disasters.

 Our research has three main goals. The first line of enquiry will comprise an investigation of the relationship between economic disasters and output volatility. In particular, our goal is to investigate changes in output volatility over the last two centuries and to provide possible explanation(s) for these changes with a special reference to the role of economic disasters. Our second line of enquiry will include an investigation of the long-run effects of economic disasters on output growth. The goal is to investigate the long-run effects of economic disasters on output growth; the possible transmission channels through which economic disasters can affect output growth, and the role of institutions in economic disasters and their long-run effects. The third part of this research is going to focus on the role of economic disasters in Croatian economic history. Our goal is to investigate economic disasters in the recorded economic history of Croatia; the possible long-run effects of these economic disasters on output growth and output volatility; to analyze and predict possible negative long-run effects of current crisis and suggest policy measures for prevention or amelioration of these negative consequences.

Ovaj rad je financirala Hrvatska zaklada za znanost projektom IP-2016-06-4682